Folks, I found why Kerala govt may be fine with Covid - they have lesser number of deaths in 2020 and 2021 WITH the pandemic than would have been without it! Follow my logic below.
The Kerala registry of births and deaths called the Civil Registration System (CRS) is here: https://cr.lsgkerala.gov.in/Pages/map.php
Every year, deaths in Kerala increase by an amount, because of population increase etc. Suppose you try to find by how much this increases, then you have:
Total deaths registered in Kerala 2015 - 2,36,883
2016 - 2,44,943 - up 8060 from previous year`
2017 - 2,52,131 - up 7188 from previous year
2018 - 2,55,624 - up 3493 from previous year
2019 - 2,64,186 - up 8562 from previous year
Ignoring 2018, when the rise in deaths is deviant, we can say that the deaths rise by between 7000 and 8000 every year.
So, WITHOUT THE PANDEMIC, in 2020, the deaths in Kerala should have been around 2,71,000 (2,64,000 + 7,000)
The actual deaths registered in CRS for 2020 was 2,43,601! That is Kerala had LESS people die with the pandemic than what would have been, without the pandemic! Maybe this is why they think the pandemic is great.
In fact, the Kerala govt has a propagandistic piece precisely saying this - that due to excellent management, their all-cause mortality dropped by 10% (link below). (They take care to take a potshot at developed countries and other states in India)
But Kerala’s former health secretary, Rajeev Sadhanandan has identified the reason why this is messed up - “"But soon, we realised that death registration, which used to be near 100% in Kerala, had come down due reduced mobility, reluctance to visit government offices, increase in the number of home deaths due to reluctance to visit hospitals, etc." (link below)
In other words, the Kerala govt is knowingly lying in that above piece.
More amazing results from Kerala are there.
For 2021, if you find the number of deaths reported in the CRS upto Aug 28, 2021, it is 1,64,804.
By our method above, the total deaths in 2021 should have been around 2,78,000 for the full year, without the pandemic.
Assuming deaths are distributed uniformly with months, upto August, Kerala's projections for deaths without the pandemic will be:
278000*(8/12) = 1,85,000.
Instead the actuals are 1,64,000 WITH THE SECOND WAVE! That is, in spite of the mayhem in May, June, Kerala has 20,000 LESSER deaths than would have been without the pandemic!
This is why Kerala administration do not want the pandemic to stop.
It is clear from this that the Kerala CRS is majorly screwed up OR as Sadanandan says, deaths are not accurately registered in Kerala, at least in the pandemic years.
Certainly, if this kind of discrepancy occurred in UP, we all know what the response and mocking will be about how irrational those Northies are.
But there is a very important corollary here - BBC wrote a laudatory article on Kerala, in which it claimed that Kerela has least deviation between actual COVID deaths; and “excess deaths”. This article was much circulated as an example of the Kerala model.
But this BBC article relies on an Indiaspend article to perform the actual analysis (all links below)
The Indiaspend article depended upon The Newsminute for this data for Kerala alone.
Using a slightly different (wrong) method, The Newsminute relied on the above CRS data to make the case that Kerala’s deviations in COVID numbers were low. Specifically, it claimed that the actual deaths in Kerala were a certain number.
(Actual Deaths Registered - Projected Deaths without pandemic) / Official Covid deaths = Deviation between official stats and reality.
This deviation, according to The Newsminute, was around 200% for Kerala.
But Newsminute’s actual death number calculation is wrong to rely on CRS data from Kerala at all, as we just saw (and as Sadanandan explained)! If most deaths were not captured by the CRS itself, then the real number of deaths could be much higher, making Kerala come in line with other states like Tamilnadu (750%).
So, basically this calculation based on unreliable stats from Kerala was laundered by these propagandists into BBC, the epitome of true reporting. This is what happens when you allow anti-fascist zeal to go into over-drive.
BBC article - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-58054124
Indiaspend article - https://www.indiaspend.com/.../deaths-first-wave-second...
Newsminute article - https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/tnm-exclusive-kerala-reports-almost-14000-excess-deaths-till-end-may-2021-151124
Kerala CRS website - https://cr.lsgkerala.gov.in/Pages/Map.php
Kerala govt note on drop in mortality in 2020 - https://health.kerala.gov.in/.../Technical-paper-All...
Sadanandans comment - https://www.indiaspend.com/.../mortality-data-kerala...
